We propose a statistical mechanical framework for the modeling of discrete time series. Maximum likelihood estimation is done via Boltzmann learning in one-dimensional networks with tied weights.

A new Bayesian modelling framework is introduced for piece-wise homogeneous variable-memory Markov chains, along with a collection of effective algorithmic tools for change-point detection and segmentation of discrete time series. Building on the recently introduced Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) framework, the distributions of different segments in a discrete time series are described as variable-memory Markov chains. Inference for the presence and location of change-points is then performed via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The key observation that facilitates effective sampling is that, using one of the BCT algorithms, the prior predictive likelihood of the data can be computed exactly, integrating out all the models and parameters in each segment. This makes it possible to sample directly from the posterior distribution of the number and location of the change-points, leading to accurate estimates and providing a natural quantitative measure of uncertainty in the results. Estimates of the actual model in each segment can also be obtained, at essentially no additional computational cost. Results on both simulated and real-world data indicate that the proposed methodology performs better than or as well as state-of-the-art techniques.

Path signatures are powerful nonparametric tools for time series analysis, shown to form a universal and characteristic feature map for Euclidean valued time series data. We lift the theory of path signatures to the setting of Lie group valued time series, adapting these tools for time series with underlying geometric constraints. We prove that this generalized path signature is universal and characteristic. To demonstrate universality, we analyze the human action recognition problem in computer vision, using $SO(3)$ representations for the time series, providing comparable performance to other shallow learning approaches, while offering an easily interpretable feature set. We also provide a two-sample hypothesis test for Lie group-valued random walks to illustrate its characteristic property. Finally we provide algorithms and a Julia implementation of these methods.

Statistical models of discrete time series have a wide range of applications, most notably to problems in speech recognition (Juang & Rabiner, 1991) and molecular biology (Baldi, Chauvin, Hunkapiller, & McClure, 1992). A common problem in these fields is to find a probabilistic model, and a set of model parameters, that 436 Lawrence K. Saul, Michael I. Jordan

Statistical models of discrete time series have a wide range of applications, most notably to problems in speech recognition (Juang & Rabiner, 1991) and molecular biology (Baldi, Chauvin, Hunkapiller, & McClure, 1992). A common problem in these fields is to find a probabilistic model, and a set of model parameters, that 436 Lawrence K. Saul, Michael I. Jordan

Statistical models of discrete time series have a wide range of applications, most notably to problems in speech recognition (Juang & Rabiner, 1991) and molecular biology (Baldi, Chauvin, Hunkapiller, & McClure, 1992). A common problem in these fields is to find a probabilistic model, and a set of model parameters, that 436 LawrenceK. Saul, Michael I. Jordan account for sequences of observed data. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been particularly successful at modeling discrete time series. One reason for this is the powerful learning rule (Baum) 1972») a special case of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) procedure for maximum likelihood estimation (Dempster) Laird) & Rubin) 1977).